Recurrence rate after 5 years

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Rachel1
Rachel1 Member Posts: 363
edited April 2015 in IDC (Invasive Ductal Carcinoma)

At the time of dx, onc placed recurrence rate at 20%. I had I D C with node involvement. So what happens at 5 years, does that number go up or down? I'm so confused.

Rachel

Ps I know -- all to well --that there are no guarantees.

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  • Avrenim156513
    Avrenim156513 Member Posts: 47
    edited April 2015

    According to a summary of a study published in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute there is still risk (these results are for women who received adjuvant treatment):

    "Among breast cancer patients who were cancer-free five years after initiating systemic therapy, 89 percent remained recurrence-free at five years (approximately 10 years after a woman ’ s initial diagnosis) and 80 percent remained recurrence free at 10 years (approximately 15 years after diagnosis).

    I am including the link below:

    http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/100/16/1119.3.full.pdf

    I had also found a study made in Europe which suggested that the hormone therapy recommendation might be changed from five years to ten years, after following another group of survivors for ten years.

    By the way, I think many of us wonder about this. After all, we all want to live more than five years. Smile


     

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  • Bren-2007
    Bren-2007 Member Posts: 6,241
    edited April 2015


    I'm not sure, but I believe I read that for ER+ cancer, your recurrence rates climb a bit after the 10-year mark.  I'll have to do some research and see if I can find the article.

    Bren

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  • wintersocks
    wintersocks Member Posts: 922
    edited April 2015

    I was told at the three year point shows a peak in recurrence and the five year mark also shows a peak, as time goes on recurrence is always possible, but that it is a diminishing risk. I am er 8/8 so that might be just my case....

    It's confusing....

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  • Varod
    Varod Member Posts: 15
    edited April 2015

    Nothing happens to that number, that was the number at 5 years. Just throwing out something to work with let's say the number at 10 years is 25%.

    So for 20 women like you, at 5 years 4 of them had a recurrence and 16 did not. At 10 years 5 have had recurrence (and 15 did not). So only one more person recurred during that time interval. You're right nothing is guaranteed in this terrible disease unfortunately, but the longer you go the more likely you are to be one of the people that will never recur.

    There was a meta-analysis recently of many older studies with long followup. For various reasons the numbers in these old studies with worse (or no) chemo probably don't represent you but you can see the trends really well here, in column "B". Most (70-85%) people that recur do so in the first 5 years; after that a small number may recur but it's a smaller proportion of the people that got to 5 years without recurrence. http://www.thelancet.com/cms/attachment/2020891501/2041096901/gr3_lrg.jpg

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  • Varod
    Varod Member Posts: 15
    edited April 2015

    http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)60488-8/fulltext

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