Confusion about recurrance rates

I second what kayb said.  The doctor was going off stats and probably shouldn't have been too specific until after the final surgical pathology and oncotype test results.  The oncotype test is a relatively new tool that oncologists use to get a more individualized picture of the aggressiveness of your particular tumor and whether or not chemo would be of benefit (in ADDITION to surgery and hormonal therapy).  There are also other tests like the mammoprint and another new one that the name escapes me right now.  These tests help individualize treatment and can dictate whether aggressive treatment is needed...and also potentially helps avoid overtreatment of those with genetically less aggressive tumors.  It still all ends up being a numbers game and a bit of a crap shoot, but it's all we've got right now and is better than what it was 20 years ago....and will hopefully improve in the future.  Best of luck to you and I hope your treatment goes as smooth as possible and that this will all be behind you before you know it.

It sounds to me as though your surgeon was talking only about your local, i.e. in the breast area, recurrence rate, which is the only thing that surgery can effect.  The recurrence rates he mentioned to you are average local recurrence rates for lumpectomy vs. mastectomy. 

Are you now dealing with an oncologist?  Usually it's an oncologist who presents the Oncotype results.  Oncotype scores measure the risk of distant recurrence, i.e. a recurrence outside the breast, or mets.  The type of surgery you have has no impact on distant recurrence risk. 

So there are two very different types of recurrence risk after a diagnosis of invasive cancer. It appears that your surgeon gave you generalized data (in other words not specific to you) about only one type of recurrence risk, local recurrence, which in fact is the risk that is much less serious or concerning. It's very unfortunate that your surgeon was not clearer, particularly if you made decisions based on his comments.

Have you decided if you will be doing chemo?

The data is confusing.  Some studies measure recurrence in the same breast, recurrence anywhere, distant recurrence, death rates, etc. etc. so you can't compare.  At my stage (I, ER+) and age (62) the risk of death is very small from this cancer at both 5 and 10 years, the risk of distant recurrence small, breast recurrence a bit higher and the highest in the same breast (means they missed some).  There are a number of web site for doctors where you can put in your profile (age, stage, grade, ER, PR etc.) and they will give you your stats based on one or more measures and which treatments (radiation or not, chemo or not, hormone therapy or not).  There is a list of these sites somewhere on this site.  I went to IBTR! (10 year same breast) , Adjuvant! (10 year relapse and mortality), Cancer Math (15 year mortality) and Predict (5 and 10 year mortality) and ran my numbers.  I am planning on bringing the results with me to my post surgical appointment next week to share with the radiation and medical oncologist.  With early breast cancer the percentages in all cases are not high so doing a treatment cut the risk in half but the actual percent difference is small. 

I am also confused of recurrance rate. I have only got information on having a low risk. Ductal invasive, grade and stage 1 . I got leftside mastectomy and no radiation or chemo. Have to decide about hormon treatment and wanted to know the risk reduktion compared to no treatment . My risk for recurrance in the other breast. I have not got a clear answer from my onc and feel very unsure of having hormon treatment  for five years. I am 63 year old.