Cancer Math

You are not trespassing! I am sorry to hear about your wife's diagnosis. Everyone who finds their way here is welcome.



First off, I notice your wife is ER positive. Did she have the OncotypeDX test? That test which is based on your wife's tumor's genes is probably the most accurate at predicting distant recurrence at 10 years. My score of 15 meant that I had a 10% chance of distant recurrence at year 10. Cancer math said I had less than a 3% chance of dying from breast cancer within 15 years. My chances of dying in that time period is greater than 10% from other illnesses.



Looking at your wife's signature, it appears that with an ER positive, grade 1 tumor, she should do well. Try not upsetting yourselves by focusing on percentages. The bottom line is newer treatments are developed frequently, so those statistics become less meaningful over time. For example, a study just concluded that a patient could take tamoxifen longer and decrease their chance of recurrence in the double digits ( relative risk) than if they took it for the customary 5 years.



I wish both of you well.

Colt - remember, when you read a stat about a 10 year survival rate, that means those women were treated with 10 year old treatments.  Yes, things have definitely changed that much in 10 years.  I was dx 5 years ago, and I'm amazed how much things have changed in just that short a period of time.  My mom died of b/c in the 70's, and when I compare my treatment to hers, it's like they were treating a whole different disease.  Her treatment was state of the art at the time, yet it seems so primitive now!  So take any long term studies with several grains of salt. 

FWIW, your wife's dx sounds a lot like mine, except that I had a Grade 3 tumor so I was in a slightly worse position statistically.  Yet when I finish my 5 years of Femara this summer, my onc has said that at this point, my risk of dying from heart disease is greater than my risk of dying of b/c.  It's not that I'm at any special risk for heart disease - women in general are more at risk of death by heart disease at my age (57), and at this point my risks are back to those of the general population. 

As voracious says, don't get too hung up on those calculators and studies.  Your wife can talk to her onc about things she can control - such as exercise, which has been shown over and over again in studies to reduce recurrance.  At my onc's strong recommendation, I exercise 30 minutes a day 6 days a week - running, yoga, elliptical, hiking, strength training, etc..  As a matter of fact, I was never a runner before dx, but I've enjoyed getting into running so much that now I'm training for my first half marathon.  Training for a race like that is not easy, but hey - I went through chemo - I can do anything after that!

My husband was a wonderful concerned partner - much like you sound.  Having your wife's back through all of this is the best gift you can give her, and will give her more strength and courage that you'll ever know. 

Remember too that Cancermath provides you with the probabilty of being alive in ten years.  This is not the same as being alive without a recurrence (or disease-free).  Many women have local recurrences but still survive but would not be considered alive without a recurrence or disease-free.

Colt - nice to meet another Nats fan!  I can't wait for Opening Day after such a great season last year, and this year promises to be even better!    Thanks for "checking in" - when I was first dx I took a lot of comfort when I found women here who matched my profile who were years out and thriving, so I certainly understand that urge. 

Yes, you are terrified - for your wife, for your kids, for the quality of life you have now.  And you feel totally helpless - a horrible feeling.  But I think you're looking for definite answers that simply aren't there.  I also spent a lot of time initially trying to get answers about 1 year out, 5 years out, etc.  But as the weeks and months passed, I realized that all I was doing was stressing myself out, and I was never going to find the certainty I was looking for.  And I was spending a lot of time worrying about something that might not ever happen.

Another husband with a b/c wife passed along something to my husband that helped us immensely - "Don't go there until you get there."  Meaning, deal with what you have going on now, and don't spend time worrying about things down the line that might never happen.  It made so much sense to both of us, and we pretty much have adopted it as our mantra.  Think of it this way - if the worst never happens, then you've thrown away hours of your life worried and stressed about something that never even happened.  And if the worst does happen, deal with it then.  If it's going to happen, worrying about it now won't prevent it, and all those precious hours spent worrying were hours you could have been spending with your wife and kids. 

"Don't go there until you get there" is an easy concept that is really hard to do - I know that the mind tends to go to sinister quickly, especially in the beginning.  But the more my dh and I tried to work through not going there till we got there, the easier it got to really practice that.  If one of us started going too far down an unknown road, the other could pull us back just by saying, "Don't go there until you get there."   I know you want facts.  I know you want something definite that after your wife finishes active treatment her chances are good.  Well, you know that already - her chances are good.  Oncologists rely on Adjuvent Online and CancerMath because those can be tailored for a specific patient.  As curveball says, the studies you're reading may be from patients from different countries with poor medical care, patients who got older treatment, patients who may not have been compliant or may not have been able to afford good care. 

I don't mean don't research - you probably will always want to keep an eye on the latest treatments and developments in breast cancer.  But trying to realistically predict your wife's recurrence and survival chances through Dr. Google is simply not going to happen, no matter how much you want it to.  So for your sake and your family's sake, please stop frightening yourself with Dr. Google.  You're not going to find the answers you're looking for, and all you're doing is stressing yourself out. 

Sorry for the long post, but I really do understand your terror as I was much the same way.  Learning to live with with uncertainty is one of the hardest things about a cancer diagnosis, and it takes time.  Hang in there - it really does get better. 

Awww - thanks.  :::blushing:::

Personally, the "we" doesn't bother me a bit.  Yes, I had the cancer, but it's not like my dh wasn't going through his own hell, too - so yes, we both had a cancer experience. 

I think in some ways it's worse to be the caretaker.  A year after active treatment was done, my dh came down with a sudden life-threatening condition.  We joked that it was quite a switch for him to be up on the exam table with the doctor going over him while I sat in the corner taking notes!  I was so nervous before all my own my surgeries, but nothing matched the sheer terror and helplessness I felt when they wheeled him off for his surgery.  Fortunately his surgery was a complete success and he's fine now, but having such a quick turnaround in our patient-caretaker roles really gave each of us insight into what the other person had experienced.  Let's just say, neither role is fun . . .

I went there. Now I'm freaking out. It gives me a 49.9% chance of being dead within 15 years. I'm only 37. I have little kids. I won't even make it to retirement.

If you use PREDICT make sure you put your tumor size in mm - not cm.  Just multiply your cm by 10 for the correct number.