What is considered "high risk?"

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alrz1980
alrz1980 Member Posts: 47

Hello,

Can you help me determine what is considered "high risk?"  Each calculator is so very different.  Does anyone know the percentage breakdown for being "high risk" and the recommendations for each group?  When is prophylactic mastectomy considered?

Thanks in advance!

Comments

  • MelissaDallas
    MelissaDallas Member Posts: 7,268
    edited February 2013

    If you were tested for BRCA did the genetics counselor not discuss this with you? Generally only first degree relatives with cancer (mom, sister) count a lot. Even when there is a lot of cancer in your family most breast cancer is not genetic. How old are you and have you had biopsies with atypical findings? I can tell by your other posts that you are very anxious. Why do you believe you need a prophylactic mastectomy?

  • ballet12
    ballet12 Member Posts: 981
    edited February 2013

    Arusso,

    I don't have any percentage breakdown for high risk.

    The most obvious high risk groups are inidividuals who have BRCA 1 and BRCA 2 genes.  Both groups are at high risk for bc and other related cancers (ovarian) and others depending upon which brca is positive (colon, melanoma, pancreatic, etc.), because there are defects in the tumor suppressor genes affecting the body's ability to defend against tumor development.

    Other groups of high risk individuals include those with extensive family histories of bc, who haven't tested positive for BRCA genes, but likely have a genetic risk

    There are individuals with pre-cancerous conditions which raise risk, including Lobular Carcinoma in Situ (LCIS), as well as Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia (ADH) and Atypical Lobular Hyperplasia (ALH).  Ductal Carcinoma in Situ is considered by many to be cancer and by others to be pre-invasive cancer, so at very high risk, so it is treated aggressively as if early stage cancer.

    There are other pathological conditions that put individuals at risk.  I'm sure someone else can jump in with these.

    The most common category to get prophylactic mastectomies is, not surprisingly, those with BRCA positive genes.  If you read through the threads here, though, you will find individuals who have gotten prophylactic mastectomies for LCIS, ADH and ALH among other conditions.  Sometimes individuals have both the high risk condition and the family history, which concerns them greatly and they have the prophylactic procedures. 

    I'm sure one of our resident "statisticians" can help with the quantitative end of things, although I don't know exactly what you are looking for--what the risk is for each different category?  I have seen quotes that those with ADH have risks of 20 to 25 percent lifetime.  BRCA risks are much higher.  I wish this were an exact science.  It is not.  The Gail score does vary from others, and those are population risks, not your individual risk, which is not as easy to calculate.

  • alrz1980
    alrz1980 Member Posts: 47
    edited February 2013

    Thanks!  I was interested in what doctors would considered "high risk" for prophylactic surgery. 

  • alrz1980
    alrz1980 Member Posts: 47
    edited February 2013

    I am 32 and have had two benign biopsies.  You are correct, I am very anxious.  My genetic couselor did state that I have an obvious family history, 2nd degree family members.  I was told to get screenings every 6 months (not sure my insurance will cover them) and possibly Tamoxifen which I really don't want to take.  I have about a 25% lifetime risk.  Might sound crazy, but to me that is too high.  I have a young daughter to worry about.  Thanks for talking with me.

  • MelissaDallas
    MelissaDallas Member Posts: 7,268
    edited February 2013

    I'm hoping one of our experts chimes in here, but it doesn't sound to me that you are much higher risk than average. I am high risk and on the six month follow ups & so far it is not bad. I can understand that the doctors would not want to do surgery on you with no pathological findings. Did something in particular happen that made you start worrying?



    You sound so afraid that I just want to give you a hug.

  • alrz1980
    alrz1980 Member Posts: 47
    edited February 2013

    Yes, the two biopsies really scared me.  And the fact that I didn't know I was high risk before that.  1 in 4 sounds high to me.  I know there are women much higher.  But for me that sounds really high.  Especially since it doesnt include the fact that I have 75-100% dense breast tissue that is hereditary.  I am afraid that one day when that is included in the risk calulators my risk will sky rocket.  Thanks so much for listening and being so nice.

  • MelissaDallas
    MelissaDallas Member Posts: 7,268
    edited February 2013

    I left a message for one of our resident "experts" to reply to your message when she gets a chance. She can explain better than I. Normal lifetime risk is about 12.5%.



    I am 51. I'm too heavy. I have LCIS & have had ovarian cancer. Both my Dad's mom & sister had colon cancer & all of his aunts on one side had breast cancer. My breast density is still 50-74%. I had genetic counseling & am negative for BRCA, PTEN & CHEK2. My risk is estimated to be at least 30% and on some predictors considerably higher.



    Like you, when I was diagnosed (bear in mind this was less than a year after my cancer surgery) I was really alarmed & thought I just couldn't keep doing this & thought I might want a mastectomy. I have since calmed down considerably. I've had my first follow up mammo & it was normal. There are a lot of high-risk women here who have been closely followed for years and are having no problems. There are also a lot of stories here about complications from mastectomies & reconstruction.



    I'm just going to take it one year at a time. Sometimes I think our real fear is not so much of cancer but of not trusting ourselves to handle it if it was.

  • Beesie
    Beesie Member Posts: 12,240
    edited February 2013

    arusso, 

    I remember when I first came to this board 7 years ago, the generally accepted definition of "high risk" was if someone had a 5 year breast cancer risk that was 2.5% or higher, i.e. an average risk of 0.5% per year.  I just checked this out, and interestingly, the definition of high risk has been changed to a 5 year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, or 0.33% per year (Women with a five-year risk of 1.67 percent or higher are classified as "high-risk".)  This is the risk level at which Tamoxifen can be recommended and I can't help but wonder if the availability of Tamoxifen for high risk women is part of what's triggered the lowering of the bar. 

    arusso, since you are 32, any calculation of your lifetime risk will assume that you live to the age of 90, another 58 years. So if your lifetime risk is 25%, that works out to an average risk of 0.43% per year. That might seem to suggest that you are "high risk". However it's important to remember that breast cancer risk isn't evenly spread across all our entires lives - breast cancer risk increases as we age. So perhaps a better way to look at it is by considering that your 25% is just a tiny bit more than double the risk of the average woman. Lifetime breast cancer risk for the average woman in North America is currently 12.4%. Breaking that 12.4% down by age, in her 30s, the average woman's risk is 0.44% - that's over the entire 10 years of her 30s.  Since your risk is approx. double the average woman's risk, it means that your risk in your 30s is around 0.9%.  That works out to 0.09% per year, which would make your 5 year risk only 0.45% - well below "high risk".  So this might be more accurate, but it's inconsistent with the recommendation that you consider taking Tamoxifen. (Breast Cancer Risk in American Women)

    What did your biopsies find?  Did they find any high risk conditions or were they totally benign?  That certainly would make a difference in whether you are considered high risk or not. 

    As for when a prophylactic mastectomy might be considered, I don't think there is any answer to that. I don't think that at any particular risk level, there are guidelines that say "now you should have a prophylactic mastectomy". At each risk level, different options may be presented on how to address the risk, and at higher risk levels, prophylactic mastectomy is one of the options. Prophylactic mastectomies are quite common among women who have the BRCA mutation and, to a much lesser degree, among women who've already been diagnosed with breast cancer in one breast. Some women who have high or moderate risk conditions such as LCIS or ADH also choose to have prophylactic mastectomies, sometimes with the support of their doctors and sometimes not. If your lifetime risk is 25%, I'd guess that while some doctors would discuss the option of a prophylactic mastectomy with you, few would say that it's necessary or encourage you to choose this option. 25% lifetime risk, if it is considered to be high risk (and that depends in good part on how old you are when you have this 25% risk, i.e. if it's spread over 30 years or if it's spread over 55 years), is at the low end of the 'high risk' scale. 

    Not sure how much that helps! Undecided

  • ballet12
    ballet12 Member Posts: 981
    edited February 2013

    Arusso,

    Just to add to my comments and those of Beesie (and others), there is no "golden rule" about prophylactic mastectomies.  There are individuals with very high risk (BRCA positive) who, for whatever personal reasons, chose to be followed carefully (mammos, sonos, MRI) and possibly with hormonal therapies (Tamoxifen).  At the same time, there are individuals whose category of risk may be much lower, who chose mastectomy.  It's the same way once individuals are diagnosed with breast cancer.  It is becoming much more common for individuals to have a prophylactic mastectomy of the non-diagnosed breast, even though for many individuals the risk to the other breast, while greater than the general population (Beesie would say the risk doubles from 1/2 percent per year to maybe 1 percent per year), is not very high.  It seems to me that individuals make these decisions based, in part on statistics, and in part on their level of anxiety or fears of years of biopsies, etc.  There was a recent article in the New York Times about this.  There may even be a trend for some surgeons to encourage prophylactic mastectomy of the non-treated breast.  In one of my consultations with a surgeon, I definitely had that recommendation.  He said:  "I have a bad feeling about your breasts", and proceeded to try to frighten me about what might happen in the future.  Of course, I was quite vulnerable at the time, and it did shake me up a bit.  Breast cancer is scary, absolutely.  I read these threads every day and totally get it.  The more I read, the more I get it. Ironically for many people (many of us "high risk" people), there are other risks that are potentially greater, but more hidden (undiagnosed high blood pressure, stroke, diabetes, heart attack, other possible cancers in the future, dementia, etc.). 

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