I say yes, you say no, OR People are Strange

Glad to hear that WR.

The Post's editorials are usually wishy washy and confusing, but this one is very good. And it's central premise, that Romney has total contempt for voters, is spot on.

I'm sure he'll blame the 47 percent when he loses - he'll say they didn't heed his call for industry! And America will say back: Mitt, go and jump in a lake.

As sad as it is, my DH has always joked that we are better off when Congress does nothing. Cuz the stuff they do is so screwed up.

Suzie, that wouldn't differ by country. It is guided by the science of statistics. The number of people polled here is approximately the same - usually between 800-1,200 -- and it would be that way in any country.

Athena - At school we read a book entitled "How to Lie with Statistics". Such small samples cannot possibly indicate the outcome. As we say a lot on a newspaper blog I read - the only poll that counts is the one on the day.

Most of the lies with statistics come as a result of the interpretations made about the results. I am not statistician, but, yes, it is indeed possible to get a reasonably accurate sense of voting sentiment with such a small size - there are a million scientific technicalities that go into a polling sample. In well conducted polls, the people aren't chosen at random. Most polls will screen for "likely voters," for example. But there are certainly dishonest pollsters out there. The most un-scientific polls would be the ones where people get to vote by clicking on something on the internet. The ones that Gallup does are based on a cohort that has certain defined characteristics.

Polls in the US have usually been right - it's the dumb pundits and idiotic network hosts who usually get it wrong.

I also have little respect for what Nate Silver is doing - it's ok to bet and he is good at it, but I find it scandalous that his work should appear in a publication that considers itself serious journalism. The fact that Nate Silver gets so much publicity is the sad consequence of how journalism has declined and how much our political process has become a mob-ruled casino.

I'd say you are right that the only polls that count are on Election Day - except that here we have early voting in many states. About one third of votes will already have been cast by Election Day.

As one wag put it (I think it was one of our former Prime Ministers) "Polls are for dogs".

And then there is the maxim "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics".

Having said that, polling has become extremely sophisticated.  The well-respected polling companies carefully structure their polling questions so that there is absolutely no trace of bias.  If they didn't do that, they would soon be out of business.

But, in the end, as Suzie says, the only poll that really counts is the one on election day.

Just been watching the news from the US - Romney does not come across as genuine - no emotion at all. I know I don't agree with left wing politics but I'd be scared of having him for a president. What's with that New Jersey governor - they said he has ambitions for the White House - I think his first ambition should be the Biggest Loser. Now I'm not thin by any means, but I can't see how anyone voted for him.

All told, I have not seen much of Christie, but I can't dislike him. He has a certain energy and charisma. I am sure he would have to throw his conscience out of the window if he ran for president as does everyone who goes on the GOP ticket but I do see a committed public servant (and a talented politician).

Athena, Nate is just a poll aggregator.  Then he plugs in the data to programs that model different outcomes.  He's not really betting.  And even he says that just because his results show a lower probability for Romney to win doesn't mean it won't happen, just that going by the numbers it's less likely, i.e. the only poll that counts is on election day..  

In fact, there was a bit of a ruckus the other day when some on the right wing found out that he just plugs numbers into an Excel spreadsheet and that anyone could do it - like he thought those on the left would be disapointed because he's not an actual magician, just a numbers guy.  I know that you don't have much faith in statistics, many people don't.  I tend to trust statistics, when the data is accurate.  What I don't trust is that the way polls are conducted can still be accurate.  Since caller ID, call blocking, cell phones whatever - many people don't answer their phones when they don't recognize the number.  I know I don't.

RR - I know what Silver does, ad it's ok in itself. But I am shocked that he appears in the NYT, a publication I once thought  was above that. I don't disrespect his craft, but it does not belong alongside news. It diminishes the level of the national discourse. It's interesting and fun, but speculation/calculation does not (or DID not) belong side by side with "Just the facts ma'am." And it certainly isn't "All the news that's fit to print."

Sadly, the blogosphere, despite its many strengths, has spelt the end of serious political journalism. Many, many people have left the business in disgust. Nate Silver's work should never be front and center in a presidential race.

Kam......well, well, well, what a brillant bunch of voting cohorts Romney has.  The intelligence...on my.  I started laughing about half way through.  That being said, I do feel concern, no doubt about it that people like that ( I have to remind myself that I'm not too aticulate either ) are able to delve into my future to great extent. 

Based on what they say.....I'd have to think they never watch much news unless it is the Fabulous Fox channel for those not wishing to be enlightened, nor read newspapers. 

I'm thinking here we have someone who aside from many other rather large miss-steps also was a major opportunist in using Libya, a foreign country to promote himself, than as of quite late, turns around and does the same thing here  in his own country with a hurricane.  He has the dubious dishonor of having to have two motor corporations "straighten" him out on their jobs staying in America, and is being sued by the UAW. 

I don't know what planet his Romneyites came from, but if this is what they think comprises their bright future, boy is their wake up call going to be a bruiser.

Jackie

http://margaretandhelen.com/2012/11/01/lets-vote-mitt-off-the-island-i-mean-it-really/

Let’s vote Mitt off the Island. I mean it. Really

Alexandria....hope you are getting your Rachel Maddow fix this evening.   She is excellent tonight.  She pointed out a very interesting item.  Seems when some people in the campaigns start to realize that things aren't going their way.....they start to come up with ideas for the V.P. loser.  Just very recently ( some time yesterday ) someone was presenting ideas for what to do with Ryan once the "loss" was official. 

It has verifiably happend in all the recent campaigns and is happening now.  I find it quite interesting that it always get 'leaked' right before the election.  It's apparently leaking like a sieve. 

Trying to shed a tear but I just can't seem to get it out.

Jackie

Jackie - Agree about Rachel Maddow - I am also enjoying her.

I look forward to seeing her special show on Sunday at the same time.

ETA: Helen definitely rocks! Those two women are wonderful.

Enjoy --- hugs and may good news continue.