***Stats Question-What is Reoccurence odds after...*****

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Pure
Pure Member Posts: 1,796
edited June 2014 in Stage III Breast Cancer

I was wondering a question on stats

For example if your chance of a reoccurrence is 40%

Then you have:

Zometa 37%

Double Masectomy/Oomph 16%

Exercise 50%

Aspirin 50%

Then the final chance of a reoccurence is?

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  • KerryMac
    KerryMac Member Posts: 3,529
    edited March 2010

    Zero! LOL!

    Really, I just think your "number" is meaningless, it is what side of it you fall on that is important. So I think all the "extra" stuff I am doing (Zometa, exercise, etc) gives me a better chance on falling on the right side of that line. It all helps lower my risk, but it doesn't give me any guarantees....

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  • horsedoc
    horsedoc Member Posts: 512
    edited March 2010

    I love math and would love to be able to calculate something like that but unfortunately I don't think it's possible.  The reason, I believe, is because each of the things you are doing to help reduce your recurrence affect different physiological influences of the recurrence. 

    At least that's how I see it.  If you don't understand how I wrote that I can clarify with an example.

    Guess you can all see what a nerd I am.  Heehee.

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  • AnacortesGirl
    AnacortesGirl Member Posts: 1,758
    edited March 2010

    Yep.  Can't be calculated as a mathematical equation.  It would have to be a study of women doing all those things versus women who didn't.  But that wouldn't be accurate either because a lot of those women wouldn't have the butt-kicking cancer attitude that you have. 

    I'm looking at my chances of mets in a whole new way.  Give me a high or a low number.  It doesn't really matter because that's the number I'm gonna beat.  A high number will just make it look more impressive and maybe make me feel like all this agony was worth more.

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  • NancyD
    NancyD Member Posts: 3,562
    edited March 2010

    Yep, unfortunately, each preventative measure we take doesn't knock points directly off a single percentage line. It's more like there are several lines of chance and our treatments affect them separately.

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  • Claire_in_Seattle
    Claire_in_Seattle Member Posts: 4,570
    edited March 2010

    I personally plan on being here.  You are right: the effects are cumulative, not additive.  There is a big one that everyone has left out: completing standard protocol!  In 2003, about half of BC patients either didn't get it or didn't complete it.

    When I was trying to figure out what my real odds were, I went back to a study of similar high risk patients who all would have completed the treatment to be included.  Non-recurrence was something like 8 percentage points higher than for similar breast cancer patients as a whole.

    These are the things I have worked out for myself.

    Lifestyle Choices:

    • Continue activity levels prior to diagnosis with minimum therapeutic dose of exercise daily
    • Weight management  (= BMI of about 25-26)
    • Aspirin therapy....325 mg dose daily
    • Diet: nutrients, weight management, insulin management

    I am skinny at a BMI of 25 which is why this number is so high.  Insulin management is important for both BC and because my father died of diabetes.  Really don't want that one.

    I should probably add "no wine" but there are limits to everything! - Claire

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  • maryannecb
    maryannecb Member Posts: 1,453
    edited March 2010

    The only numbers that mean anything to me are 0 and 100.

     Either I have no recurrence or I do.

     I have done all I can to be 0 but, as I know and have seen ,some of our ladies recur despite what they have done.

    Looking at endless tables will not help you determine your course.Might change some of what you do...but most of what you do is fairly standard...

    Sadly whether I recur or not is beyond my control.Happily, I am living quite normally so I am glad I don't know what will happen. Ignorance is bliss...head in sand...way down deep. :))))

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  • jenn3
    jenn3 Member Posts: 3,316
    edited March 2010

    I agree  0  and 100, I either have a recurrence or not and am putting my head in the sand next to Mary.  I have stayed away from stats since the early days of diagnosis, it was too upsetting. I felt like it was holding me back and keeping me from enjoying my family, friends and life.

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  • helena67
    helena67 Member Posts: 357
    edited March 2010

    I did do the calculation and come up with 5.3% recurrence risk! Sometimes it is nice to look at such happy numbers!

    -Helena.

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  • KerryMac
    KerryMac Member Posts: 3,529
    edited March 2010

    Helena - that makes me laugh, as I have done the same thing - say we start out with 40%, take off 10% for Zometa, half that with exercise, then again for aspirin....not much left!

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  • Pure
    Pure Member Posts: 1,796
    edited March 2010

    Thanks everyone...

    Helena and Kerry -yes just want a happy number to hold in my brain along with all the negative numbers I have seen:)

    I think it HELPS to believe your going to make it and stay positive when you have some good stats supporting you and to refer to when you start to go there.

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  • helena67
    helena67 Member Posts: 357
    edited March 2010

    I think it helps too!!

    Today it's going to be sunny and I am going out for a walk. That's another 5%!

    Wink

    -H.

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  • Octobergirl
    Octobergirl Member Posts: 334
    edited March 2010

    Jen,

    It'd be great to hear how your onc answers that question to shed light on how a doc really factors preventative and/or mitigating supplemental txs. into an assessment.

    Throughout my life, it has always been easiest to put life experiences..especially changes and losses... into perspective when I know I have done all I could.  On this board and this thread we spend a lot of time educating ourselves and supporting each other. I'll always know I've done all I can.

    Thinking of you today.

    Molly

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  • nowords
    nowords Member Posts: 423
    edited March 2010

    It seems that there are more and more articles and reports that point to very genetic specific and DNA specific treatments for cancers; and cancers that morph; Following the stories on the boards, of  those that continue to post for long periods, and reading the diagnosis and treatments that are posted, it is obvious that there is no magic stats formula....some folks with "poor" prognostic factors are around for a very long time, and others who should expect a "cure" still relapse.

    I too think that it is 0 or 100...

    The stats that I would get cancer were very low....go figure....

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