Late recurrence rate

windgirl

hi - does anyone know of a reliable source that will tell what the rate of recurrence beyond year 5 is for Tripple positive cancer? I have hit the 5 years on tamoxifen and am trying to decide whether to continue. It would be helpful to know what the risk of later recurrence is to begin with and sure enough can't find nothing on google other than some study that looked at a relatively small group of patients.

Admins feel free to chime in if you know, thanks

Beesie

I've cut and pasted this response from a post I wrote last November:

While over half of ER+/PR+ recurrences happen within the first 10 years, the risk of a metastatic recurrence continues for at least 10 years beyond that:

• Beyond 5 years: enduring risk of recurrence in oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer https://www.nature.com/articles/s41571-018-0145-5#Abs3

"Women with early-stage oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ER+) breast cancer who receive standard endocrine therapy for 5 years remain at risk of distant recurrence for at least 15 years after treatment discontinuation."

"Oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ER+) breast cancer is at least as likely to recur beyond 5 years as it is before 5 years from diagnosis."

.

• 20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1701830

"Breast-cancer recurrences occurred at a steady rate throughout the study period from 5 to 20 years. The risk of distant recurrence was strongly correlated with the original TN status. Among the patients with stage T1 disease, the risk of distant recurrence was 13% with no nodal involvement (T1N0), 20% with one to three nodes involved (T1N1–3), and 34% with four to nine nodes involved (T1N4–9); among those with stage T2 disease, the risks were 19% with T2N0, 26% with T2N1–3, and 41% with T2N4–9."

• Factors that predict recurrence later than 5 years after initial treatment in operable breast cancer https://wjso.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12957-016-0988-0.

The blue line is ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-.

windgirl

thank you so much Bessie! This is very informative. I'm her2+, does the graph indicate pretty much no recurrence after about 5 years