What Are The True Facts?

DivineMrsM

Please help me with some perspective. A woman I know shared a Facebook post by a woman named “Melissa Floyd" who bills herself as partner in an Immunity Education Group and a few other things. She asked hospital staff, from all over the U.S. to weigh in on whether their hospitals were over-burdened by COVID19 patients and if their hospital ever hit “the peak".

She has 2.4k replies and RNs and other hospital workers from CA, TX, NC, OH and elsewhere are saying they have few COVID19 patients. They talk about hospitals cutting staff due to low volume of patients. Of course, many replies are labelled “Anonymous".

There are also some replies (and I didn't read all of them) saying, “oh, my kids had this in December, blah, blah, blah....." sort of like it was nothing.

Melissa's point is apparently, “Is the coronavirus media hype?"

Myself and my family, including all the extended family members, are obeying stay at home orders. I watch the evening news and they're always concentrating on NYC and its horrific ordeal. I'm not minimizing it at all. But we aren't hearing news from all over the U.S.

It does make me wonder what the facts are without the hype. Or is this Melissa woman just trying to make a name for herself?Please weigh in. I'm not saying anything is wrong or right here. I'd just like some perspective.

ShetlandPony

I think the difference for different locations is simply a matter of time. I think we can believe the projections paint a generally accurate picture. If places with only a few cases blow it off and don’t take precautions, they could become a hot spot in a few weeks. It is hard for people to believe something they are not (currently) experiencing, and to understand that there can be consequences to certain behaviors when the consequences are delayed. The virus has an incubation period and spreads exponentially. The doctors and nurses I trust don’t think it is all hype, and are advising me accordingly. That said, yes, the media love hype and are not above painting the most sensational picture they can, ratings over facts. Remember Luna Lovegood from the Harry Potter books? She was eccentric so people discounted everything she said, but she was right about a lot. Just because the messenger may be flawed, it does not mean everything they say is untrue. And remembered how Dr. Lister was mocked when he proposed sterile surgery in the 1860s? The other doctors could not see it for themselves so they discounted his theory.

Anonymous

Well - urban conurbations will have people all squashed together so NYC was always going to get hit hard and fast. Daily direct flights from Italy and China didn't help matters either. But transmission is going to be far more delayed where people are more spread out and have fewer daily contacts or daily foreign contacts.

Logically this won't hit everywhere at the same time at the same level. London, for example, is two weeks ahead of the rest of the UK and you can see it in the infected statistics which are starting to level out down here, but are increasing in the northwest of the country. More rural areas of the US you can have few contacts with people outside of those you normally see all the time - there are few 'foreigners' introduced to the local environment. Of course, all it takes is one person, but the chances of that happening is lower than living in a city where you bump into strangers going down the street.

Here they are also saying that ER admittance levels are way down, mostly due to a) people don't want to go anywhere near the hospital and b) they closed all the contributors to needing it - pubs, sports, etc. They haven't had to use the Covid surge hospitals yet, so there is still the same grumbling about 'its a hoax!' and that the government overreacted. Until you see the thousands dying in old age homes of this who aren't being counted or treated in the hospital. If you are sick with covid you have to essentially be blue in the face before an ambulance is sent out for you - if you can get through the hours long phone wait. Updated statistics are showing many people dying outside of a hospital, but these figures lag the daily in hospital ones by up to ten days.

As for low volumes of patients - how many elective and non-elective surgeries were cancelled because of this thing? The backlog is going to be immense - those patients aren't going away. Its kinda like with a tsunami when all the water goes rushing out only to return in a much greater wave.

Anonymous

She seems to be an anti-vaxxer with a poorly-sampled poll. I would ignore her.

There are multiple outbreaks besides NYC. Rural areas aren't completely safe. I read a South Dakota meat plant had to shut down due to hundreds of covid-19+ workers, yet the governor refuses to issue a shelter-in-place order. The goal of physical distancing and lockdowns is to prevent hospitals from reaching their peaks. Hospitals free up beds so they can handle a surge. Without these measures, the disease will spread more quickly killing more. Look up the difference between St. Louis and Philadelphia during the Spanish Flu.

I can't watch the news anymore, but I do read online. We need the media. Without it, we in Montreal would have missed the massive outbreaks in long-term care facilities. Some are now being investigated for criminal neglect. These outbreaks are occurring all over.

This disease is continuing to spread, but some people are not staying home. I saw a pastor died of covid-19 after defying orders not to hold services. This is an example of not needing to believe the science, but still be subject to the consequences. How many cases did this pastor create? Could be thousands.

But why are people complaining about the media instead of all the dying people? South Korea and US had their first case on the same date, but SK deaths are around 225 versus around 26,000 for US.

We need to continue to stay home.

Betrayal

We will never know the full extent of Covid-19 due to the lack of testing in the US. Even those with full blown symptoms have had preliminary negative tests, yet later turned up as positive. Many deaths will be attributed to other causes and some families will not want this listed as a cause of death so co-morbidities will be listed (remember the initial response to HIV as cause of death). Let's face it, without a definitive positive test, cause of death will be listed as pneumonia.

I would ignore this woman's informal poll since she doesn't seem to be a recognized researcher (don't think they publish or conduct research on Facebook). This is not a hoax and unless you are willing to sacrifice a family member to determine if this is real, I would recommend that you follow the guidelines that have been put in place to prevent further spread or deaths. Hospitals may be laying off ancillary personnel but are not laying off those on the frontlines. They will be losing money due to the increased costs of treating those affected, the cost for PPE, drugs required for those being ventilated (believe me you do not want to be intubated and awake), and the loss of revenue from canceled patient visits, surgeries, etc. It will be interesting to see how insurance companies will reimburse hospitals for the care they have delivered.

As John Donne said, "No man is an island entire of itself; ... any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind. And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee".

I am not willing to sacrifice my family or myself and will patiently await when we can resume a new normal whatever that may be.

DivineMrsM

All of your answers are calming to me. The woman I know (who posted Melissa’s post) is a rather entitled mom, seems to want things her way with little concern for others. The pandemic is interfering with her life and she wants to get back to normal! She’s the type to think there’s a conspiracy.

I also kind of thought Melissa was an anti-vaxxer, a philosophy I do not agree with. And of course, all the anonymous replies to her poll, heck, you never know what kind of weirdos get off writing total and complete lies.

On the other hand, as the saying goes, and has been stated here in other words, “Good news doesn’t sell newspapers.” The media does want to pull viewers in. I’ve never been a fan of how they used dramatic words like “surged” and “plunged” to ramp up the fear factor.

I appreciate your helping me get a handle on this. Being cooped up, I want to make sure I’m not losing touch with the “real”!

Anonymous

The pandemic is interfering with everyone's lives. For some it's the end.

Epidemiologists would love to be accused of overreacting. That's when they know they've succeeded.

Jettie

the new usa dashboard from Johns Hopkins, seems to be very useful for factual information, but as with anything, the data is only as good as the number of people actually being tested and reported, and i know a few people who have had symptoms and not been tested.

Johns Hopkins Dashboard

Betrayal

I regard information gleaned from Facebook as the same as that received from the childhood game "whispers". By the time it reached the last person, the message is so distorted that it no longer bears any resemblance to the original message. Shame on Mark Zuckerberg for not controlling harmful content posted on FB.

As far as anti-vaxxers, I started my nursing career as a pediatric nurse who specialized in communicable diseases. I saw children die of diphtheria, whooping cough, measles and chicken pox encephalitis. Others that managed to survive the side effects of these diseases did not always have good outcomes including permanent brain damage, etc. Not all of these deaths occurred pre-immunizations for childhood disease; some are still occurring because we have children with compromised immune systems that endangered by the anti-vaxxers children when they develop either a carrier state (no or minimal symptoms) or they develop the disease.

I am in full support of medical experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci who is the voice of reason during this pandemic. He knows of what he speaks and has been involved in this type of situation for nearly 50 years.

exbrnxgrl

divine,

My older dd’s ex-husband keeps sending her each and every conspiracy theory he reads on the net concerning Covid19. Although most agree that there are still many unknowns about the virus, some of these conspiracy theories are beyond any good sense, logic or reason. One insisted that the fact that it spread globally in a relatively short time directly points to it being purposely manufactured and introduced. I wonder what the explanation for the many waves of disease that have plagued (pun intended) us since the dawn of man would entail?

As for anti-vaxxers, I wonder if they would feel differently if they got to see the effects of these childhood and adult diseases on a largely unvaccinated population? Heck, I even saw the aftermath of smallpox about two years before WHO declared it eradicated. It was horrendous and though I never had any quibble with vaccines, that experience made sure that my children’s vaccines were current. My children have carried that on with my grandchildren, though that pesky ex-husband questioned it 🤦🏻

Anonymous

Good thing he's an ex-husband.

I've never had a FB account and never will. There's too much bad information there. I do have a relative who would send me emails with conspiracy theories. I finally sent her a reply to stop.

This wasn't made in a lab, and it is not the Chinese or Wuhan virus. Saying so just promotes violence against Asians.

DivineMrsM

Yes, it really is about the science. I know Dr. Fauci is a man of vast experience and many medical achievements and am grateful for his guidance in the pandemic.

Serenity, your graph is absolutely perfect! Thank you for posting it.

Jettie, thank you for the Johns Hopkins link.

Betrayal, I didn't realize you are/were an RN, but knowing that now, I have great respect for your perspective because you've got first hand experience dealing with communicable diseases. It is sad to think that you witnessed senseless deaths of children who could have been saved had they simply been vaccinated.

Exbrnxgrl, being members together all these years on this forum, I know you to be a voice of reason. I admire how you are very sure of your convictions. You make a good point asking how anti-vaxxers would feel if they saw the effects first-hand of disease ravaging an unvaccinated population. I'm thinking there aren't going to be RNs and other medical professionals who don't believe in vaccines. The ones who against them aren't in the health care field.

AliceBastable

I don't see any reason not to be on Facebook. I use it to stay in touch with family and real-life friends who have become geographically scattered over the years. The few people I have "friended" who I don't know personally are long-time real-life friends of friends - rather like the old-fashioned letter of introduction worked to vouch for someone. I select my news feeds judiciously, and if I see a dubious story circulating, I (or one of my friends) will check with Snopes or one of the other reputable fact-checking sites. Most of us have been researchers or fact-checkers in various fields at some point in our careers, so we tend to see red lights flashing pretty quickly. Facebook is as stupid or as smart as you allow it to be.

DivineMrsM

Alice, I'm in agreement with you about Facebook and got a chuckle out of your true statement: it's as smart or stupid as you allow it to be.

I certainly can understand how some people dislike and have nothing to do with Facebook. I know a number of people who don’t care for it; it’s not everyone’s cup of tea. I mainly use it to keep general tabs on extended family and friends, too, from a cousin in California to a sister is Alabama, a niece in Georgia and many points in between. My small town's police dept and city council both have FB pages and share useful local information that I'm not sure how I'd get elsewhere, and a FB page for city residents fills in additional info. The FB page of our county health dept posts COVID19 updates every day letting residents know of positive cases (24 so far) and other helpful facts about the pandemic.

I don't intentionally seek national news from FB but if I come across something that catches my eye, I always look further in to the matter checking facts, and that's exactly what happened when I read the post of “Melissa". I came right here for clarity. Generally, I might not even stumble across something like that, but with more time on my hands, I meander a bit more online.

Anonymous

Part of my field involves data collection. Not all but many people I've worked with avoid FB as well. Their questionable data collecting practice was the initial reason I avoided an account. Yet FB likely has some of my info due to my contacts having accounts. Now there are people who are deleting their accounts in protest. I understand there are people who need to keep theirs. Happy to avoid it altogether.

Knowledge is power. FB has too much of it.

keepthefaith

Thanks for starting this thread. I find myself second-guessing COVID info quite often. Just like with BC, you need to be careful of the sources of your information. I spoke with my older sister yesterday, who lives near Seattle and works in the meat dept at a grocery store. She refuses to wear a mask, which is provided to all employees. I just don't get it. She says she is 'over it"...the media hype can be sensational and having a healthy balance of information is hard right now. I think, for me, I am looking for a ray of hope that a successful treatment is near and this will end soon. Until then, mock me, laugh, I don't care. I will be at the grocery store every 2-3 weeks donning my face cover and social-distancing. I will isolate as long as necessary. I told my sister, I would rather be anal than dead. I haven't hugged my kids and grandkids in a month and it is hard to not see them like I used to. I agree, Dr. Fauci is a God-send. Not to get political, but he took one for the team after the media storm last week. He truly cares about others' lives. If not for him, no telling where we would be.

A well-known "wellness" co in Austin posted an ad on FB offering an anti-body test for $200, claiming it was approved by FDA for emergency use. It has not been. Shameless. Stay well and do your due diligence!

DivineMrsM

Keepthefaith, it's interesting to hear your sister's side of the story. I hope she is okay throughout the pandemic despite her choices.

The news does hype. A headline yesterday: “U.S. death toll tops 33,000 as two million test positive for coronavirus worldwide." Yes, tell me statistics, but don't combine U.S. ones with worldwide ones all in a sentence because that is done for dramatic fear-factor effect. I'm not going anywhere, so basically, the cases affecting me personally are in my county of which there are 24 positive cases in a population of about 65,000. How alarmed am I to be about worldwide cases? I’m not sure I have the capacity to stretch my brain around those worldwide numbers.

I happened to see a text dh got from his sister (my SIL); they corresponds infrequently. Her son works in the support staff at a Columbus, Ohio hospital. SIL said she thought things where hyped up, and she's usually Miss Freaked Out about everything. But she’s a Trumper. Then I hear yesterday the hospital where her son works has 80 employees test positive with the virus. Sounds like a lot. Then I read the hospital has 30,000 employees. So it's a small percentage of the whole and not unexpected. Of course, they are saying other employees may have it and just be quarantining at home without getting tested, but they're not releasing any numbers on that. I wonder if SIL still feels the virus is hyped, a comment she made back in the middle of March. And I’m not sure what the true story is because the hospital says one thing, the nurse’s union is saying something else and news reporters are putting their own spin on it.

So you do have to get past the dramatic headlines and do research and get to the bottom of news stories to find out what the real facts are.

SummerAngel

Well, Colorado isn't great, at least on the Eastern slope of the Rockies, and I think that locally the news is pretty accurate. We've got "overflow" hospital areas made up but they haven't needed to be used (and will hopefully stay that way), so we've been able to flatten enough to handle the load. It's not to be taken lightly, though, because you never know if you'll be hit hard or not. I was hit hard enough to scare me for a bit but not enough to end up in the hospital. One of my best friends at work did end up in the hospital but not on a respirator, thankfully, and he's still recovering (he's only 29). A relative of another friend has died from it.

keepthefaith

Divine, I find my sister annoying, to put it mildly. I think she represents a large group of people. She says she is over it, which leads me to believe that she wants to move on and get on with some sense of normalcy. Yet, she is creating the very problem that she is tired of....? It's hard for me to make sense of it. We don't agree on a lot of things, so, not surprising to me....but very irritating. If others' lives and health weren't being affected, I could blow it off. It is hard to find a balance between hyped up fear and reality.

SA, I'm glad you are well!