Odds of stage 3 progression to 4

maryland

I'm just wondering if there are any statistics on odds of stage 3 metastasizing to stage 4. I can find 5 year survival rate for each stage but what is the rate/odds of recurrence? I know there is no crystal ball but I wondered if anyone has seen any info on this.

lkc

hi Genny, I don ' t think there are any true "stats" out there. all BCs have such vast variables, proliferation markers, grade, hormone levels, her 2 amplification, numbers, etc. etc. also treatements rec'd. It 's all so individualized and can be so random. I know many stage IIIs that have not gone on to mets, and other lower stages that have.

my story, is like you stage IIIc at onset, and am well, grateful, and livin large over 10 yrs later! Fear of recurrence fades with time.

Wishing you well

maryland

Thanks for the fast reply Ikc, I know it all is so varied, depends on so many thing and in my case staing on the Ai, it's just that all the statistics you read are on overall survival for each stage and I wonder why none are done on recurrence. I'm just exactly 1 year out from finishing tx and it is getting easier but still always on my mind. Thanks again, 10 years out, that is so great! Congrats!

Holeinone

Hey Genny,

I had a appt. after completing rads, with a oncology nurse practictioner. She worked 2 hours away, but the hospital had her come to our rural area when people completed treatment. She was a breath of fresh air, easy to talk to, was open & honest.

She said that I had a 65 % chance of being Cancer free, 35% chance of metastic diease. I know that the extranodal extension increases the odds of progression. All my nodes were bursting open & Cancer growing on the outside. They all were much bigger than the primary tumor.

I am 7 months ahead of you, dx & tx. Still have anxiety, but try to keep busy & ignore it.

maryland

Thanks holeinone, that is what I was trying to get at. I've always said I figured my odds were 50/50, everyone of my nodes had extranodal extension as well. Also, I had my chemo first and when they did the BMX thay found that the chemo had no effect on the cancer. Don't know if it's good knowing that or not, people that have adjuvant therapy don't really know if it works or not but assume it did. I was looking for this info early on before we knew the extent of the cancer when I was trying to decide between BMX vs lumpectomy when all my original MO would say was the survival rate was the same for both. I didn't want to go through tx again if possible so my concern was more recurrence than survival. Thanks for your input, those are better odds than I had thought. I try to ignore it as well and I'm slowly getting better at it. One day at a time.

april485

Hi genny5775. I am not stage III but wanted to tell you something that I heard that might help you with a different perspective. Your odds are either 100% if you recur to stage IV or 0% if you don't. I guess the jist of this is that it won't matter in the end what the "odds" are for your particular case, just whether you do or you don't. Hugs and hoping you are always 0%!

moni731

Hi, I am one of the odd ones. Stage llB, PCR with neoadjuvant treatment. Then 4.5 yrs after dx, small spike in TM's. Then pain in upper R quadrant and small lump in R breast. Work up revealed extensive mets everywhere. I'm inclined to agree with April485, either you will or not.

Moni

Kicks

As far as I am concerned stats/odds mean nothing. 'Stats' are not individual but a compilation of all. Does not take into account that the individual - just 'numbers'. We all enter BC diagnosis as unique individuals. Stage is only part of what might effect us. There are other issues that come into play - the type of BC effects the prognosis as does the ER/PR and HER2 status also comes into play. Our overall health at time of DX also comes into play - some of us are very healthy when DXd, some have many health issues and many fall somewhere in between. So in other words - 'stats' are just math for everyone lumped together - not individual.

Individually - our 'odds'/% is either 100% or 0%. Either we have a recurrence or we don't, so it's either 100% or 0%. Either it happens or it doesn't. This basically is how it was explained to me by my Chemo Dr. He would not give any % as he said not pertinent.

sbelizabeth

I agree with Kicks. My onc said exactly the same thing about the 100% or 0%, and it's a waste of time and mental energy to wonder about my own chances of recurrence.

Easy to say, I know! Right after diagnosis and during treatment, it's "cancer radio" playing in your head 24/7. Now that I'm a few years out, the elephant in my living room has shrunk down to a mouse that squeaks only occasionally.

maryland

Thanks everybody, I really do know all these things, I have told my friends for a long time about the ...either 0% or 100% and much of the time I can roll with that. The day I posted this thread was right after we had our yearly appointment with our finance guy and we were discussing when we can retire and how much money we needed for our senior years and it started bringing out all the what ifs. You are right, I know there is no reason to dwell on this subject, was just one of those days. Thanks ladies, love and longevity to you all!