NHS PREDICT tool

michellej1980

Didn't know which area of the forum to post this but I suppose this is as good as any! 

For those of you who are as obsessive as me at looking at survival stats and such, have you used this tool from the UK?

http://www.predict.nhs.uk/

And for anyone interested, here's a paper on it from the British Journal of Cancer: 

http://www.mediterraneohospital.gr/file/CBC 2012_3.pdf

It is similar to Adjuvant! Online but seems a lot simpler.   Basically it gives me much better numbers and am wondering if it is the same for others. PREDICT says that there's an 88% chance of me being alive in 10 years with NO chemo or hormone therapy after surgery. That seems overly-optimistic to me and I'm sure Adjuvant! Online gave me only 40%. 

Also, any tips on how to stop myself looking at stuff like this? I know deep down that none of these numbers make any difference to me as an individual and that I am doing everything treatment-wise that I can, so trying to guess the outcome is pointless and is driving me crazy. I guess I am just desperately hoping something somewhere will tell me that I will be fine, but of course nothing and nobody can do that. I wish I could switch my brain off from all this. It's wearing me out.

toomuch

I just entered my BC info into Predict and Ii got the exact same reulsts as adjuvant! Predict asks you to enter the size of your tumor in millimeters while adjuvent asks for centimeters. I initially made a mistake and entered 0.9 but my tumor was 9mm. Could you have made the same mistake? I think that would significantly effect the results.

I don't have any recommendations, other then to say with time, I tended to become less obsessive about statistics. My MO says your recurrance risk is either 0& or 100% depending on if you do or don't recur. I finally decided that he is right! However, I still couldn't help wanting to know more about this new prediction tool!

michellej1980

I did enter the size correctly. But I do now remember that AO gave me 65% chance of being alive in ten years with no adjuvant therapy. It was 40% of being alive AND disease-free. Still, a huge difference. 

Thanks for letting me know how your results compare. I know that not everyone wants to look at these sorts of things. 

I see things the same way as your MO, but every now and again I get hung up on statistics. It's so tiring but maybe I just need to let myself do it and get it out of my system!

maltomlin

Hi

I'm from the UK too. The predict figures are are very similar to what I had before. 

It's very easy to get caught up in these figures, which really don't mean very much. We're all different and so these figures are absolutely meaningless. They just give us an average......and we're not. We're all different.

I was dx 5 years ago and at that time I was very caught up in these figures, as you are. You are looking for confirmation that all will be well.....long term. I hate to tell you that nothing will give you that confirmation BUT the chances are that if you follow the treatment plan you will be OK.

As I said, I was dx 5 years ago and never thought for a minute that I would still be here today. I followed the treatment plan, did what was asked, just 'put my head down' and got on with it. Chemo wasn't pleasant, but I'm here, so I suppose it did what it was supposed to do.

Don't google too much. Spend any time you have spare, baking and cooking meals that can be frozen. It pays off in the long run. It also keeps you occupied.

Just take one day at a time. Don't think too far ahead and DON'T GOOGLE - you'll scare yourself silly.

Take care

xx

lemon68

Michelle.

I try very hard to stay away from this stuff but I CANT resist!!  Had to go and try it and for some reason it does make me feel a bit better. We scare the hell out of ourselves on the net, even on these threads but we keep coming back. The fear to me is worth the knowledge gained. I think we are all searching for the same thing.

Also wanted to tell you that you have a warm smile, keep smiling.