Help me calculate recurrence rate

Alicia70598

Help me calculate recurrence rate

Alicia70598

I need help with a math problem. I'm trying to figure out the probability that I will have any kind of recurrence -- distant or local/regional. If the chance for distant recurrence is 15 percent and the chance for local is about 10 percent, what is the likelihood that I will have any kind of recurrence? I can't seem to figure out the math formula. 

To clarify, I'm pretty sure that when oncologists give you your prognosis, using tools like Adjuvant Online, they are referring to distant recurrences, not local/regional. That's a separate thing that radiation oncologists deal with. 

It's not just about curiosity. I'm trying to figure out whether to pursue a clinical trial with a more aggressive treatment.

Estepp

12% is what I am thinking

lexislove

Personally, I think Adjuvant Online is outdated. I don't think they take into consideration radiation treatment and even Herceptin ( you are not HER2 so this wouldnt apply to you).

and I think your right, when oncologists give prognosis rates they are usually based on distant recurrences. Thats what we are all worried about.

What treatment has your onc suggested for you?

Alicia70598

Thanks for your responses!

Estepp, I wish it were 12%, but I can't imagine that adding an additional risk to the 15% would bring it down. 

Lexis,

My oncologist also thinks AO is too general, so he used another system to calculate rate of recurrence. But I get the impression that medical oncologists typically deal with the risk of distant recurrence and leave the risk of local recurrence up to the radiation oncologists. So that's why we end up with two different numbers.

I'm doing the treatment recommended, which is Tamoxifen, and also looking into which med to take to strengthen my bones. One course I'm considering is this bisphosphonates trial. in which the NCI is comparing three treatments for their ability to prevent recurrence in Stage I, II or III breast cancer. My oncologist thinks it's a reasonable study, and I'm going to see an endocrinologist who specializes in bones to get a better sense of what I would be getting into (he thinks the study is a good idea). We talked about this study on another thread, and one of your posts convinced me to consider it more seriously. 

Estepp

But I think it would be 12%ish.

15% distant.. you do not add another 10% for local. You take the two % and add them. divide by 2. this would be the overall % for any type of recurrence. This is how my onco described it to me.

Laura

lexislove

Alicia,

I'm glad that you are considering zometa. I saw my onc on Monday, had my second zometa infusion, and he says heis seeing more onc's getting on the Zometa "bandwagon". As well as the recurrence thing, the bone strengthing component is great. Especially since I am on the Lupron shots to shut down the ovaries. I'm highly thinking of a oopherectomy, so the Zometa will help then need be.

Alicia70598

Lexislove, and anyone else who is interested in Zometa. I consulted with an endocrinologist at my cancer center yesterday and decided to do twice-yearly Zometa. What I hadn't realized is that this is the same dosage that was used in the Austrian study that was found to increase disease-free survival by 36 percent. I'm much more comfortable pursuing this than the NCI bisphosphonates trial with much higher dosages. 

PS - Can't believe I'm feeling this good. I just had my exchange surgery yesterday afternoon!

lexislove

Alicia,

I choose NOT to be in the study. My Zometa is 2x year/ 4mg an injection. So it is the same as the Austrian Study.

I'm glad you are feeling great about your exchange surgery. I'm waiting till Fall of this year for mine.

Alicia70598

Lexis, Did you choose not to be in the study for the same reasons as me? (wanting to be sure to get Zometa & avoiding the super-high dosages)

lexislove

Basically...yes. I don't want to be a guinea pig. I choose to do what is ALREADY known to work.