What are the statistics of new cancer a third time?

kossmore, how old are you? And do you know if this diagnosis is thought to be a local recurrence, or a new primary? A recurrence would be if some cancer cells from your original diagnosis remained and developed again into breast cancer in the same location of the same breast. A new primary would be an unrelated breast cancer that newly developed in either breast. After 14 years, a new primary is more likely, but a recurrence is certainly still a possibility. Since you mention a lumpectomy, and since rads can't be done twice on the same breast, is this diagnosis in the other breast? Or is it in the same breast and you are considering a lumpectomy with no rads?

For those of us diagnosed at a young or relatively young age, the chance that we will be diagnosed with a second new primary breast cancer is higher than most people think. All women face their highest risk to develop breast cancer when they are in their 60s and 70s, and for those of us diagnosed previously at a younger age, our risk during those years is about double that of someone who's never had breast cancer before - that's what my oncologist told me and the studies I've read seem to support that.

But then a third diagnosis? There aren't many women affected by this so I would be surprised if there are any studies on it. But that doesn't mean that the risk might not be quite high to be diagnosed a third time, after a second diagnosis. I think age would be a very big factor - although our risk is higher when we are older, it is also true that we have fewer years ahead in which we could be diagnosed again. In other words, in another 14 years, will you be closer to 65 or will you be closer to 85? That makes a big difference on your risk to be diagnosed again.

That said, the figures your surgeon gave you sound extremely high, if he is talking about the risk of a third new primary. If he is talking about recurrence risk, and if you have a lumpectomy without rads and have an aggressive cancer, an 85% local recurrence risk might be right. But recurrence risk wouldn't impact the other breast, which could only be affected by a new primary and I can't imagine that risk being as high as 65%.

So what your surgeon said is confusing. Perhaps you should talk to a Medical Oncologist to get another opinion.

Crafty - my sister’s came back 3 times and the last time it ended her life. She was DX in 2012 with lobular BC and has a MX one year after me. I had IDC. Four years later hers came back to the MX scar. This past April it came back with a vengeance. She had radiation and chemo but it didn’t help. She only made it through 2 chemo treatments. Her cancer was aggressive and attacked her liver and kidneys. It was horrific and heartbreaking.

Diane

Edwards750, I am so sorry to hear about your sister. I just lost my brother two months ago to kidney disease. I can't imagine losing my sister; we are so close.

I went to the plastic surgeon today and again was told there would be no difference in surviving this new cancer between lumpectomy and mastectomy. I also talked to the genetics counselor and they are going to do a broader panel of testing on me. Right now the only thing showing up is a VUS on ATM gene. I am opting for the lumpectomy. I am at peace with my decision.

Kossmore, there is an explanation of terms somewhere. I think it is on the main site. Do a search.

Thank you Crafty. Sorry about your brother.

Diane