PREDICT Tool with Mixed Diagnosis

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ahdjdbcjdjdbkf
ahdjdbcjdjdbkf Member Posts: 645
edited January 2016 in Mixed Type Breast Cancer

Being a mathematician and working at an actuarial firm, I want to know the odds, right? My tumor was 4.5 cm - 30% IDC and 70% DCIS. Of course if I put in a 4.5 cm into PREDICT or Cancer Math with IDC, my survival odds are much worse than if I just account for the 1.5 cm of it that was IDC. I guess I might as well make myself feel better and go with the 1.5 cm!!

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  • rozem
    rozem Member Posts: 1,375
    edited September 2013

    go with the 1.5cm only - thats what is needed, the dcis does not factor into the equation since it is not invasive and cannot spread - the PREDICT tool is your % survival odds and that means chance of mets - its the IDC that could become mets

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  • farmerlucy
    farmerlucy Member Posts: 3,985
    edited September 2013

    Maria - I am with you! I manipulate the models whenever possible. The local pathologst said grade 2, but my onco score was 3 which is very low grade, so I put in grade 1 to make myself feel better. What is really cool is the model that increases your chances based on the # of years since diagnosis.  Yoo Hoo! I like that one!

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  • ahdjdbcjdjdbkf
    ahdjdbcjdjdbkf Member Posts: 645
    edited September 2013

    I love this. We are of the same mind. Why not? I've been reading a lot that so many micrometastasis in one node went undiagnosed in the past so that a lot of the statistics for 0 nodes are actually a blend of cases for those who truly had 0 nodes and those who had undiagnosed micromets in their sentinel node. So my logic isn't THAT crazy!! When I had a node biopsy it came back negative. It was only when it was removed and sent for pathology the micro mets were found. My doctor categorized my survival with 2a although my tumor size and node involvement would normally make me 2b for these very reasons.

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  • lscrivy
    lscrivy Member Posts: 10
    edited January 2016

    Hi Ladies,

    I'm a newbie and would appreciate some help. This post is the first I have seen about PREDICT or Cancer Math. Can I just google them to find them?

    My 78 yr old mother was diagnosed with invasive mammary carcinoma, both ductal and lobular features, on Dec 23. Nodule is nearly 7cm, with we think one 5mm lymph node. She has not yet had surgery so we dont know staging but I suspect stage IIB. We may learn differently upon surgery. The receptor tests are not even complete yet.

    My mom is fairly active but at 78 she thinks this is the beginning of the end. I read in CURE that if one makes it into their 70's they are likely to live into their 90s. She wants to live, of course, but quality of life is an issue if she is likely to die within 5 years anyway!

    Can anyone tell me what to expect if she chooses not to have treatment? Alternately, she is also considering double masectomy....but that won't prevent a recurrence, will it?

    So much yet to learn. Specialist recommendations (anywhere!) and all other advise is welcome and appreciated.

    Thank you ~!

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  • BarredOwl
    BarredOwl Member Posts: 2,433
    edited January 2016

    Hi iscrivy:

    For what it is worth, here is a link to PREDICT. You may not have all the information needed at this point.

    http://predict.nhs.uk/predict.html

    SpecialK explained elswhere that PREDICT: ". . . is a potentially a better tool for those of us who are Her2+, as cancermath does not factor in targeted therapy for Her2+ patients, so the result it produces may not be as accurate. This is a site form the UK and so remember to put your tumor size in with mm, not cm - just multiply your cm by 10 to get the correct number."

    Also for what it is worth, Cancermath is found here:

    http://www.lifemath.net/cancer/

    In another thread, you mentioned a "lobular" diagnosis, which is less common than ductal carcinoma. I do not know anthing about the predictive value of these programs for lobular disease.

    Be sure to read all the associated caveats and limitations for both, and remember that these estimates are based on populations. At the individual level, recurrence happens or it does not.

    Here are links to threads where members asked similar questions about pursuing treatment. The problem is that there is no way to know the outcome in the individual case. If your mother is one of the ones who is successfully treated and evades recurrent disease, she may live out her full life-span and it would be well worth it. Navigate to the very beginning of each thread.

    Trill: https://community.breastcancer.org/forum/96/topics...

    SOS: https://community.breastcancer.org/forum/5/topics/...

    BarredOwl

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  • lscrivy
    lscrivy Member Posts: 10
    edited January 2016

    BarredOwl, thank you for yourquick response. I will be doing lots of reading. So much to learn. Thank you for your assistance. Wishing you well.

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