Odds of recurrence of breast cancer in individual patients

cp418 · July 2015

http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-07-odds-recurre...

SummerAngel · July 2015

This is interesting. I have a very low risk of recurrence, 4.88% without Tamoxifen. Makes me question whether I need to suffer through hormonal therapy at all!

tangandchris · July 2015

according to that site, I have a 7% chance of recurrence w/o hormone tx and a 3% with. hmmmm.....I'm not sure if it is worth it either.

wrenn · July 2015

i can't see a link on that site to do the calculations. Can someone help? thanks.

tangandchris · July 2015

http://www.utwente.nl/mira/influence/nomogram/

wrenn · July 2015

thanks so much. I appreciate it.

tangandchris · July 2015

I'm not really sure how this is different from the other sites that predict recurrence.

cp418 · July 2015

tangaandchris - I agree that it seems redundant with calculation sites and is only useful for 5 years out. The risk factors exist beyond 5 years which is why "experts" are saying 10 years Tamox and/or AI for certain patients.

ErenTo · July 2015

I have a 4.7% chance of recurrence with all my treatments. But this seems to be only for loco regional recurrence not distant.

In my case It's interesting that it peaks in year 2,goes down in year 3 and then a higher peak in year 4. I wonder why.

GG27 · July 2015

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I just put my stats in there & it came up with a 1.59% chance of recurrence in year 5, guess I must have been part of that unlucky small statistic. GG

SummerAngel · July 2015

This calculator only goes to 5 years, but for me, even the lifemath calculator ( http://www.lifemath.net/cancer/breastcancer/therapy/index.php ) lists an 8.1% cancer death rate for 15 years without hormonal therapy (5.5% with tamoxifen). I'll only be reducing my risk by 2.6% with it.

ErenTo · July 2015

GG, it's only for local recurrence, if, with my stats,my 5-year overall local and distant recurrence rate was 4.7% I'll be over the moon!

And tamoxifen is a systemic, as well as local, treatment and could potentially prevent mets. So I wouldn't be totally discouraged by these seemingly low advantage stats.

Odds of recurrence of breast cancer in individual patients

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