question about oncotype prognosis, what happens after 10 years?

cookiegal
cookiegal Member Posts: 3,296
edited June 2014 in Clinical Trials, Research News, Podcasts, and Study Results

If I recall, the oncotype survival figures are based on what happens 10 years after diagnosis.

So here is my question, what happens after those 10 years? Does anyone know?

Bessie any guesses?

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  • jessica749
    jessica749 Member Posts: 429
    edited March 2014

    You want to know if the probability stats are a sure thing but of course they are not. They aren't even a sure thing for the first 10 yrs, just a statistic. Another piece of information.

    Presumably, the risk is highest in the first 10 years. Not presumably, actually it is. It still exists after 10 yr but is higher in the first 10. My understanding. 

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  • cookiegal
    cookiegal Member Posts: 3,296
    edited March 2014

    I realize it's not a sure thing, at least not for an individual. For the group it is what it is.

    I figured the risk drops.

    I wonder if it is proportional to RS.

    I am coming up on 5 years. I always thought of my risk in terms of the 10 year prognosis from the oncotype.

    Now I am curious beyond that.

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  • coraleliz
    coraleliz Member Posts: 1,523
    edited March 2014

    Hmmm. For my grade 1 tumors, I suspect if a reoccurence happens in the 1st 5years, it was there all along & just overlooked. In my chemo decision process, I spoke to a MO who thought I should consider chemo because it's not really known what happens that far out.

    In the last year I have met women through my work who have had reoccurences 25-30+years out. The youngest being 86 & the oldest about to turn 100. I have to consider these women success stories. I'll be happy if I get 20years. I was 52 when diagnosed. Sometimes I think BC may be my saving grace. If it can keep me from having to live with dementia Or prevent me from acquiring worse maladies, that's OK with me.

    So with an oncotype of 4 & 2 positive nodes......only time will tell.

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  • jessica749
    jessica749 Member Posts: 429
    edited March 2014

    The risk is above the average woman's bc risk for 20 years, then returns to that of the avg woman's risk.

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  • cookiegal
    cookiegal Member Posts: 3,296
    edited March 2014

    Jessica...good info, thanks!

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  • jessica749
    jessica749 Member Posts: 429
    edited March 2014

    Yes, I spoke with great authority and no reference! It comes from conversation with my MO a year or two ago. I was expressing anxiety about the long horizon for E+ recurrence and had asked something like, "How long do I have to worry for?" and  MO responded like the MD of course and told me that the risk became that of an 'average woman' after "20 years".    (In other words, it never goes away, it just resumes 'normal' risk levels after 20 yrs!!)

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