What Do You Think About This?

maize
maize Member Posts: 184
edited June 2014 in DCIS (Ductal Carcinoma In Situ)
ASBS: Treatment Affects Risk of DCIS Recurrence
http://www.medpagetoday.com/Surgery/GeneralSurgery/26223
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  • BLinthedesert
    BLinthedesert Member Posts: 678
    edited June 2012

    I think that it might be interesting data, but there is not enough information to tell how scientifically valid their conclusions are ... the abstract was presented at a meeting in 2011 and these data have not yet been published in any peer reviewed journal.  Presentations at meetings don't undergo ANY peer review - so it is difficult to judge the validity of their findings.

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  • akinto
    akinto Member Posts: 97
    edited June 2012

     When you get breast cancer, you need to become a statistician.

     I am not trained in medicine. I cannot evaluate the study. Here is my understanding of the numbers it gives.

    Remember that when the article says "Examination of recurrence characteristics showed that 54% of patients in the radiation group had invasive recurrences compared with 38% in the excision-alone group.", it only applies to the group that had recurrences.

     This is 18% of the radiated group and 30% of the not radiated group. So the total number of recurrences per 100 radiated patients is 18*54%=9.7. So the total number of not radiated group that would be likely to get invasive recurrence per 100 patients is 30%*38%=11.4.

    So the relative risk may be 16% higher, but the absolute risk is 15% lower.

     There would be 8.3 recurrences of DCIS in the radiated group. There would be 18.6 recurrences of DCIS in the not radiated group.

    According to this study, without radiation, you are 2.25 times as likely to have a DCIS recurrence. You are 1.15 times more likely to have an invasive recurrence without radiation.

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