Can Someone Help Me Calculate My Recurrence Chance?

Beagle....I can't help you either with the stats or that site....my onc used to give me stats, but hasn't since I stopped taking AI's....I marked 5 years since Dx on the 3rd.....and today had a 3 month follow up with onc....physical exam was good and he goes, I expect the blood work to be good as well.....and he graduated me to 6 month visits!!!

I agree with Linda....the longer we are from Dx, the longer we are here...

Oh yeah, welcome beagleandme...this is an awesome site.

Here is a good article (and it is very old!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/08/12/us-cancer-breast-idUSN1248209720080812 

I think you are doing pretty well!

BTW, I have a beagle too! 

OK so let's work this out...5 and 1/2 years means that your rate of living a long and healthy life has jumped back up into the realms(give or take) of the overall population.  Adding up the risks of car accidents, disease, and accidental injuries I'm considering you a pretty good horse to bet on for winning the race.  You've been trained in the value of EVERYday, are far more aware of what you are putting in your body, and you know the value of exercise.  All in all I'd say at this point your chance of never recurring is the better bet.

My money is on you Beagle! 

Hi Beagle,

Adjuvant Online is mainly for making treatment decisions after surgery (though it also has a calculator for adding AIs after 5 years of tamoxifen.)  

Without knowing exactly what calculator you used, it's hard to know what was going on, BUT, since you're a Stage 3A, it sounds about right to me that 76 percent would have been your recurrence risk immediately after surgery, if you had no additional treatment. (I'm 2B and my recurrence risk was right around that number too.)  

A couple of things to keep in mind:

* Recurrence includes things like a new primary, and a recurrence in the breast or armpit (not just metastatic disease.)

* You DID do chemo, which would lower your recurrence risk overall

* HER2 status and Herceptin is not part of the Adjuvant calculations, currently 

I agree with the other ladies here, that if you're 5.5 years out, and you have not had a recurrence yet, you are probably home-free. The HER2+ and ER- factors would make your cancer more aggressive (and therefore recur faster) so if it hasn't happened by now, sounds like you stopped it in its tracks.

Congratulations!

* Note that even if your recurrence risk was 76% after surgery, and you had done NO additional treatment, you might still have been in the 24% who was never going to recur anyway.

Well I will hope to make it to my five year mark!  I was told I have a 30% change of having a recurrence. I guess it's my fault for asking in the first place.  I held off the question for some time though.  Glad to hear someone else with 4 nodes and Her2+ is at the five year mark! 

lifemath.net has a page for conditional factors that allows you to enter years since diagnosis, which makes a  big difference in mortality outcome.

http://www.lifemath.net/cancer/breastcancer/condsurv/index.php

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Not sure if lifemath has been updated from 2007. It does not included treatment with Herceptin or any other drug for HER2+ so your prognosis might be very low. It also is not accurate for anyone with tumors over 5cm or more than 10 postive nodes (disclaimer on site if you enter above those numbers).

But if you insist on using lifemath look at the  therapy calculator survival curves. Same numbers but it looks better from that perspective.

beagleandme - I have a beagle too - he is older and more stubborn than ever, but very well behaved.  Congrats on the 5 year mark!!!!!

Welcome to the site- we understand the fears, anxiety and will be here when you need to talk, vent, ask questions or just ramble.