What is my Risk?

Risk estimation for breast cancer is very difficult for the general population.  Assuming your risk is no higher than the 'average woman' (in other words, you do not have a mutation in an unknown breast cancer gene), you can use this model.

Yes, you can put your values into the modified Gail model, and get a number. http://www.cancer.gov/bcrisktool/

There are other breast cancer risk models, but they are not as popular.

You may feel very comfortable with your answer- here you have a percentage.

But, before you get comfortable with that thought, you may want to carefully read this editorial from a professional journal.  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17148763  Then click on the 'free final text' brown button on the right to access the article.

Essentially, it opines that we know quite well the risk of a group  of women with your characteristics.  However,  estimating  your risk, you as an individual,  our ability to estimate your chance of having breast cancer is a different matter.  This editorial opines that our ability to do that is only 'slightly better than the toss of a dice.'  The article describes statistical tests they use to estimate risk.

To get a more accurate answer, you would want to see a genetics counselor.

This is all good advice and I would add one thing.  Instead of having just the mammo perhaps you bs or you ob/gyn would add a breast MRI to the equation..  Quite a lot of DCIS (the earliers stage of cancer) is seen by a breast MRI.. the MRI would be approved on family history not on BRCA + results..  Best!

You are definitely on the right track with having the lump checked out. I first had a lump appear about 6 years ago when I  was 35, had a diagnostic mammogram and ultrasound and it turned out to be a fibrocystic cyst. I cut back on my caffeine intake since then, I was drinking too much mountain dew and ice tea, and that can add to it and I kept a good watch on it since then, but then I found another lump in the same breast in January this year and it turned out to be cancer. I am 41 now, and have always led a healthy lifestyle, eating right, no smoking and maybe a drink 2 times a year. There is no other cancer of this type in my family, so I was tested recently for both of the BRCA genes and both are negative.

My genetic counsellor told me that overall cancer is 10 % genetic, 50% family history and 40% environmental. Before being tested my risks were still very high because on my mother dying of BC at 64 and her sister at 42. My guess is you are high risks. Please keep us informed and good luck!

  hello all, this is my first time posting but i've read alot...  My mother has two sisters who have had bc both before age 35 one of them died at age 31.  what is my risk since my mother now 50 has never been diagnosed.  i'm so worried since i have been having pain on left breast for 2 plus months even tho mamo and u/s were neg.  Doc felt some thickening but since neg results seems unconcerned.

rachelmf ..... I don't know if people in your family have been tested for BRCA+ but it might be a consideration with so much bc in your family. It's not unusual for a BRCA woman to not be diagnosed until late 50's or early 60's. I don't want to scare you but you should have as much knowledge as you can. Even though mammogram and u/s were negative, the fact that doc felt some thickening should make you consider an mri. For those of us with ILC, that's the way it does show up... just some thickening but neg mammo and neg u/c. Get an mri just to be absolutely sure that it is nothing ... and I hope it is nothing.

Rachelmf:  I don't know if this helps, but you are high enough risk (based on what you have told us about family history) to INSIST on a breast MRI.. A genetic counselor could help you get one by taking into consideration all your family history but that's another referral.. Go go your GP and explain your family situation and explain that based on your research YOU NEED a breast MRI.. I don't know who told ou "no luck" but they are just trying to keep costs down and perhaps you are in an area where there aren't a lot (if any) breast mri's available?  You know the answer to that I don't, but if there is a Major medical hospital around you chances are they will either have or know where an MRI is being used..  Push you are not crazy!