The Bailout: For or Against
Comments
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The problem with polls is that very often people don't really know what they are talking about.
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polls - love them or hate them are followed closely by presidential campaigns and the general populus looking a quick takeaway from events.
although the polling system can be viewed as antiquated with the exclusive use of landlines and only one in five voters under thirty having a landline, polls continue to provide voter sentiment with some degree of accuracy.
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I repeat:
The problem with polls is that they are almost always wrong, not on how people feel about the issue, just the issue itself.
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Obama continues to stay above the fray.
A quote from another political thread. Isn't that what people like me list as one of our objections to Obama. The country is falling apart and Obama is above the fray. That is not leadership, nor is what McCain did leadership either. Two sides of the same coin: how can I work this crisis to my best advantage. Sigh!
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<<The problem with polls is that they are almost always wrong, not on how people feel about the issue, just the issue itself. >>
Diageo Hotline poll: Obama 47, McCain 41
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 45
The issue is quite clear in these polls.
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The problem is a split within the republican party. After all, this is the president's bill, and Senate Republicans support it. Pretty much everyone agrees the economy will tank if we don't get something passed -- we really, really need this legislation. A lot of Republicans probably voted against so they would be on the record for voting against but they wanted it to pass because they don't want to be the ones to tank the economy either.
Most likely they will pass pretty much what they voted down yesterday because if they don't, the Republicans will lose even bigger than they are expected to lose in November. The other alternative is that teh Democrats stop negotiating across the aisle and craft a bill that will bring in the left of the party, who voted against the bailout, and leave the Republicans out completely. I think this is why the Republicans will eventually come on board.
I don't really have an opinion about Pelosi's speech except that if a partisan speech is going to so wig out the Republicans that they can't vote straight, they don't deserve to be in Congress. And i don't believe for a minute thats what actually happened.
AnnShirley, it is so clear that you hate Obama but it is surprising how you accept the Republican line on him uncritically.
Beth, I hope your man will be OK in all this. I am optimistic. But I can imagine how stressful this is.
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Laura, but wasn't it just as clear a few weeks ago when McCain was winning in the polls? And what if the polls change in two weeks from now, or three weeks, with McCain on top. Perhaps Biden makes a gaffe or Palin does reasonably well in the debates. Or some nasty group plasters the TV with images of Rev. Wright, or any of the other nasty stuff that moves people from one position to the other. Polls are meaningless right now, as they are just snapshots in time; obviously the closer one gets to the election, the closer the snapshot is to realtity--that is, snapshots of me when I was forty are not at all like snapshots of me now.
Member, I don't hate Obama. I don't even hate George Bush, and he drove me out of this country for five years. I don't respect Obama for his political positions (I don't know him personally but from what I've read of him I believe he's a good father and husband, and I know he's a good writer, and I certainly respect him for all of those), but apparently you can't understand that there can be a difference between not respecting someone's political positions and hatred of the person, or perhaps you do understand and just resent me because I don't feel as you do. And since I'm not a Republican or a McCain supporter, it seems to irk you even more that I am not voting for Obama and am willing to say why not.
You must remember, that I am a Nader supporter, and it's in the Democratic fold that I'm looking for recuits, not the Republican. I understand somewhat why you might use the word "hate" to describe people on these threads and their feelings about the other guy's candidate(s). I read the other threads and there seems to be less focus on the candidate's positions than on their persons. Far too many personal attacks, I find. I am particularly surprised by this on the Obama thread as so many of his supporters say they like him because he will bring both sides together and make Washington work again. How can he bring both sides together if his supporters refuse to accept any point of view other than their own? Also, I don't accept the Republican line on him in any respect. Most Republicans think he's a wild-eyed liberal who will bring Rev. Wright into the White House as his adviser. I don't think he's a liberal in any sense of the word as I know it. And I respect Wright as a man of integrity and believe he would be an excellent adviser to any president. He would bring with him the view of the underdog and the disadvantaged, and we sorely need that in the White House.
With respect to your other comments. I conceded earlier that Pelosi's speech may not have been the reason, or the sole reason, for the down vote, but I still hold to the view that it was a partisan speech, and that's because I viewed the speech for myself. I generally don't make definitive comments on anything without actually reading or viewing the thing I'm commenting on, although I conceded I can't get past page 33 of the bill.
And if the Democrats crafted the bill to bring in the left of the party, Bush wouldn't sign it, and then the Democrats would need the Republicans support to override the veto, so whichever way it goes, both parties need to support a partisan-neutral bill. I still have no idea if this bill is good or bad and I doubt any of us will for some time to come.
So now I've lined myself up for tomatoes from all sides. Please be sure they're Jersey tomatoes.
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<<Polls are meaningless right now, as they are just snapshots in time>>
polls are meaningful in the context and timeframe taken. they are a finger on the pulse and followed very closely by the politcal campaigns to develop strategy.
i am certain the mccain campaign is looking very closely at the poll that came out a half hour ago in florida where barack obama has taken a 49-46 lead.
edit to include link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_930354.pdf
i am not one to project possible scenarios in the future and their effect on polls, i am one to follow the present situation.
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Anneshirley, I think you like dodging tomatoes! And "most" Republicans do not think BO will bring Wright in as his adviser, that was just plain...well I cannot even think of a name for it, which is why I think you like dodging tomatoes!
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:Laura--(always with a response. LOL) Yes, they do use polls to come up with strategy, the very reason I hate (oops, should have used "don't respect") politicians. I want my politicians to have strong principles and stick with them no matter what. The two sides are always strategizing--let's look at what went down today. Obama: Did the public like my stance on Russia/Georgia. No, then I'll change it. Or McCain, will the base accept my views against torture. No, then I'll modify them. I'll agree my way is not practical, but then no one has ever credited me with being practical.
Don't the politicians actually use the polls to project future scenarios--i.e., will we lose or win in November; what do the polls suggest we should do to win in November.
Paulette--yes, dodging is the correct word. I love Jersey tomatoes and as I wrote that I imagined a basket behind me collecting my lunch for the next few weeks. I love tomato sandwichs. But yes, I know you meant that I like on occasion to be provocative. You're correct there as well.
I do believe, though, that lots of Republicans think that Obama would use Wright as a silent adviser, not in the sense that he would ever speak to him again--probably not--but that Wright's philosophy dominates Obama's thinking. I don't think it does and I wish it did.
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Interesting...
Herd mentality rules in financial crisis
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor 23 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Herd mentality rules during a financial crisis because people are wired to follow the crowd when times are uncertain, experts say.
Brain and behavior studies clearly show that when information is scarce and threats seem imminent, people often stop listening to their own logic and look to see what others are doing.
"People are afraid, and the reason they are afraid is there tremendous uncertainty right now in the markets," Gregory Berns, a neuroeconomist at Emory University in Atlanta who studies the biology of economic behavior, said in a telephone interview.
Berns puts people in magnetic resonance imaging or MRI scanners while he tests their responses to various scenarios, and studies patterns of their brain activation.
One clear pattern -- the brain's "fear center" lights up when people are uncertain.
"When people are presented with a situation where they don't have information or the information is ambiguous, we see activation of the amygdala and insula," Berns said in a telephone interview.
And people begin to doubt their own judgment.
Bern's team did an experiment in which they recruited actors and true volunteers. "One real subject went into a (MRI) scanner," he said.
They were asked to do a simple task, assessing shapes.
"We had the group (of actors) tell them the wrong answer sometimes," Berns said.
The volunteers began to change their answers to match what the group said. Perhaps they were merely overriding their own judgments for the sake of getting along, Berns said. But the scanner suggested another explanation.
RUNNING WITH THE HERD
"The group changes how you see the world in some way," he said.
"Our brains are really wired to accept the group opinion of the world."
In this case, running with the herd may not make good sense, said Paul Zak of the Center for Neuroeconomics Studies at Claremont Graduate University in California.
"There is this sort of herd mentality over-reaction," Zak said in a telephone interview.
"One of my colleagues actually pulled his money out of Washington Mutual a few weeks ago. He ought to know better."
The U.S. government has taken over mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc has gone bankrupt, giant savings and loan Washington Mutual failed and Bank of America Corp bought Merrill Lynch & Co Inc.
The U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout on Monday, sending stock markets crashing globally.
Zak said the reactions are illogical. "I see no evidence that a depression is coming but it seems like people are behaving that way," he said.
The reason is evolution, Zak said. "We are really hyper-social apes. We learn almost exclusively from each other," he said. "Gossip is really important because it is another way that we learn socially. Separating out rumor from fact is difficult, particularly in these complex markets."
Berns, whose book "Iconoclast" comes out this week and aims to teach people how to avoid this herd behavior, declined to dispense advice on weathering the current market.
"I am not a financial genius. I do know that when you see millions of people in the market essentially freaking out, that spills over into your brain and you get this impulse to do what everyone else is doing," he said.
Zak knows what he is doing. "I am buying stocks," he said.
(Editing by Will Dunham and Jackie Frank)
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Interesting article, and I agree with most of it, based on past events in history. I did not go along with the Iraq war reaction, but I was in Italy at the time and so was away from the melt-down of people's thought processes. I hope if I had been back here, I would have felt the same as I did in Italy, but I can't say for sure.
I know with this crisis, I feel the panic coming through the TV set (and from our legislators who should know better), and I have moments where I want to take all our money out of the bank and stash it somewhere, but when I turn off the TV I tend to snap back.
I am fascinated by human behavior so these last few days have been a great opportunity to observe how people react in times of panic but at the same time I hate seeing so many people so anxious and scared. I'm still searching for the right economist, the one who is able to put aside his political allegiances and give us a more nuanced view of the whole thing. When I walk outside I definitely know the sky is not falling.
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<<Don't the politicians actually use the polls to project future scenarios>> my take is they use polls to try and shape future polls
shape project probably just semantics here
tomato sandwiches are the best, i live on them at this time of year. love mine with a little warmth of sun and a dash of seasoned salt. i planted heirlooms this year and am enjoying them immensely. i have heard many wonderful things about new jersey tomatoes...
sometimes i add a little basil and mozzarella slices but my favorite is mayo and tomatoes on very good bread.
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Laura--We certainly have something in common there. Tomato sandwiches are my favorite but usually only in August. I also love bacon and tomato too, but just tomato is better for one's health, but with lots of mayo. (I didn't think of using basil and I currently have a pot of basil I brought home from Maine and need to use it soon as the leaves are going yellow.) If you've never had a Jersey tomato you must try one. They are very large and red with wonderful flavor. One of the things I don't like about living in the City is the way fruits and vegetables are sold here. In the middle of August when Jersey tomatoes are plentiful, our grocer in New York (just across the river from NJ) can only offer imports from California. When we want Jersey tomatoes I ask my sister to pick some up on the roadside for us. Apparently, grocers sign contracts for vegetables and so have to take the pulpy tomatoes even at the height of the season.
Linda--I've never had home canned tomatoes. We always use plum tomatoes on the vine when we make piazza, and plum tomatoes, whether canned or fresh for everything else. My husband is the cook and he is the one who misses Italy the most, and shopping every day for fresh produce.
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Anneshirley...if you ever come to TX. (near where I live) you will have to taste my son-in-laws marinara sauce...he and my daughter own an Italian restaurant in Huntsville and are opening another here where I live in three weeks. He is an excellent cook, I swear I could eat his marinara sauce like soup and his pizza...to die for! And I also LOVE tomato sandwiches, good bread and slather on the mayo!
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Paulette--I could send you my address.
So when is Shirley planning to start the recipe thread? I'm waiting. I'd start it but some folks already think I like to see my name in print too often, and I'm thinking of starting one on "Dancing with the Stars." I wonder if Cloris will be out tonight? And I'm amazed that Susan Lucie is over 60--she has some nerve! I'm also amazed that Warren is so huge, yet so light on his feet. People don't ever fulfill our expectations, do they?
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Enough of politics. Looking from a purely economic standpoint, I vote for the bailout. The repurcussions if we don't do the bailout are staggering.
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Dow is up about 500 pts at 3:50 pm today--lets see what happens when the programed trading starts at the last few minutes.
I feel strongly something needs to be done. I think the market is holding today because most people are starting to agree that something will be done, and confidence in the market is rising.
Anyone here old enough to remember Hooverville? Or Hooverville blankets?
Scares the hell out of me.
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Jane--Don't remember them but do remember reading about them. And for sure you don't remember them. Child!
Yes, it is scary but I still am confused and don't know what's the best solution, which for me is unusual as I usually have strong views, yes or no, on most everything. But I won't be that affected, other than house sale, so I hope the right decision is made for those who will be most affected--and I don't mean Paulson's crowd but all of us.
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All of this talk about tomatoes is making me hungry. Plum tomatoes, fresh garlic, drizzled with a little EVOO and age balsamic vinegar. On Italian bread - yummers.
After watching what is going on, and still not understanding it all - Im hesitantly voting for the bail out. My husband is saying no! Guess we negate our vote.
Nicki
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You are right Anne, I don't remember them, but I remember many stories about them from friends and family who lived through it, all of who have since passed. And it was a horror.
I don't have the answers. But, something has to be done. Had the tv on, don't remember who compared this situation to a huge car crash on a freeway and everything was stopped up--so, what would you do? Nothing, because maybe someone who caused it was drunk? Or was driving a car that did not pass inspection? Leave it there and let everything keep backing up? Or do whatever needs to be done to clear it and get traffic flowing and then make changes so those folks go to jail (I know I am simplifying it) but lets get the lanes cleared and get things moving.
Also, interestingly, someone suggested (I have the tv in the background so I am not paying attention to who is saying what) lets put a federal tax and each and every stock trade, double it for selling short or naked calls, or covered calls or puts, and put that into a "bucket" to help pay for the bailout. I believe at one time market trades were taxed per transaction.
Okay I admit it--I am a capitalist, an active trader, have a margin account, and I am about at the end of the line in meeting my margin calls these last few weeks. I want something done now for everyone's protection, including me personally.
Many, many (if not most) Americans these days are just a few paychecks away from being totally wiped out financially--And when there is no money for payroll and no money to be borrowed, small businesses (the backbone of America) will close and jobs will be lost--insurance coverage will be lost--this will effect each and every American, all accross the board.
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I'm a small business owner and I'm terrified. I already see people battening down the hatches and spending as little as possible. For small companies like mine and even slightly larger ones, their advertising budgets are usually the first things to be trimmed. For me - a publisher whose major revenue from the publication comes from advertising $ - this is not good...
The report today was that an estimated $3.5 million in tax revenue will be lost/not collected by the state of NY in the next 18 months as a result of the Wall Street mess. NYC is already cutting overtime for police and firefighters. Other municipalities won't be far behind as chunks of their revenue also come from the state.
Doing nothing or not doing it soon enough could be a disaster of gigantic proportions...
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Jane--knew you weren't there! I agree, but these days I agree with everyone as I am totally confused and a Wall Street idiot in terms of understanding the market.
Nicki--a great way of using tomatoes, which is done frequently in Spain and something similar in Italy. Take a piece of good bread, preferably peasant bread, and rub it with garlic, then the pulp of a greenish tomato, sprinkle good olive oil on top and toast, preferably over an open fire, in the oven if open fire is not available. Delicious! In Italy, one of my favorite dishes was new olive oil generously sprinked on peasant bread and toasted. Really, really good.
About which party let us down (in my view equal blame for both). I just watched James Clyburn, the Democratic house whip on CNN. He agreed with interviewer that the Democratic Black Caucus voted in the majority, "No," as did the Democratic Latino Caucus. When asked why, since it was his job to get the troops in order, he said he wasn't asked to bring them along. It sounds as though both the Democrats and Republicans were playing chicken on this. "Chicken" for those who don't know is a game . . . well, it's too long to describe. Rent a copy of "Rebel without a Cause."
This may become the de facto recipe thread if this bailout even goes through.
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Felicia--good point, particularly about decreased tax revenues.
I'm glad you posted as I was reminded that I never told you how much I enjoyed your article on "pink."
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Hey Anne--I had tomatoes that way in Barcelona a few years ago--Loved them!! Now, when the jersey tomatoes are here, I make them several times a week that way!!
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Okay, for a break. . .
I just got this e-mail from a friend!
I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in
a We Deserve It Dividend.
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000
bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman
and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a
We Deserve It Dividend.
Of course, it would NOT be tax free.
So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.
That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.
A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college - it'll be there
Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car - create jobs
Invest in the market - capital drives growth
Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else
Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks
who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company
that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out
a puny $1000.00 ( "vote buy" ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
As for AIG - liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.
Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.
Sure it's a crazy idea that can "never work."
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
How do you spell Economic Boom?
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion
We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .
And remember, this plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned
instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam. -
I grew the BEST tomatoes this year. Actually, dh is the gardener but I wanted to outdo him in my little patch of earth and bought two rather large-ish tomato plants, both heirloom varieties. One of them was an early variety, a Siberian heirloom called Moskovitz. Sounded kinda boring and not a pretty name BUT!!! They were the absolute best tomatoes we have ever had in our lives, besides being early. So sweet. So tomato-ey. Next year, I am buying seed and starting my own if I cannot in the meantime find someone locally who starts them.
If you like tomato sandwiches, you've gotta try these.
BTW, my heirloom family recipe for tomato sandwiches is "one thick slab of tomato between two slices of thickly mayonnaised white bread. S&P to taste." Divine.
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Jane--I love it and why wouldn't it work. Love those who think out of the box! We could ignore our house and take off for Europe with that dividend.
Tina--next June I plan to start a garden in Maine, as I know we won't sell our house. I'd love some tips, particiularly on growing tomatoes. Is June too late to begin? Maine is too cold to do any gardening before June, and also how much does climate and soil count?
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Ok is this the bailout thread or the tomato thread?...............I read one post and my bp goes up and then I read the next post and my stomach growls.............uggggggg I don't know what to do........do I back the bailout or do I go make a blt...........holy smoke...........shokk
Brain and behavior studies clearly show that when information is scarce and threats seem imminent, people often stop listening to their own logic and look to see what others are doing.
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